• The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) on March 22nd is expected to be trend-setting for the entire year, as market participants will see where the Fed will place the terminal rate in 2023 and whether they plan to cut rates in 2024.
• QCP Capital believes that the dollar index (DXY) will continue to lead the way for the Bitcoin and crypto market.
• The China reopening narrative has caused Bitcoin prices to rise, which could signal a sideways trend until March 22nd.
The Upcoming FOMC Meeting
QCP Capital, a leading digital asset trading firm in Asia based in Singapore, has released a new market analysis related to the current macroeconomic environment, calling the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) on the 22nd of this month the most important of the entire year. As the trading firm explains, this week has been a quiet one in terms of major macro data releases; however, more important is what Fed officials have been letting slip in their speeches lately – namely a prolonged interest rate hike with some even commenting on difficulty achieving a soft landing. This means that according to QCP’s analysis, this March 22 meeting will be crucial for setting up trends for 2021 as it sets where Fed sees its terminal rate in 2023 and if they plan cuts come 2024.
The Dollar Index
The trading firm is also predicting that dollar index (DXY) will remain as main indicator for Bitcoin and crypto market movements due to recent economic data releases such as China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index reaching 52.6 points – an indication of China’s reopening narrative coming into play and causing Bitcoin prices to rise accordingly.
Policy Path Chart
The Policy Path Chart which is officially called published by Fed four times a year following meetings of 16-member FOMC shows level and time period Fed’s higher-for-longer strategy might extend till – making it another key indicator investors should watch out for when making decisions about their investments over next few months before another Dot Plot is released again post March 22 meeting
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